The United States, like many parts of the world, including the UK, is faced with a pressing challenge in the healthcare system– a looming doctor shortage. The North American nation is looking at up to a shortfall of 64,000 doctors by the end of the year, a number projected to soar to 86,000 by 20361.
A recent Sermo survey found that 82% of healthcare professionals have felt the impacts, yet only 14% believe current efforts are enough2. How is the doctor shortage in the US affecting care quality, and what strategies could mitigate the crisis?
Insights from the Sermo community offer answers to these pressing questions.
What does the doctor shortage mean for healthcare?
The doctor deficit has significant implications for healthcare in the US Some of the most affected areas include:
- Primary care doctor shortage: Experts predict a shortage of 17,800 to 48,000 primary care doctors by 2034, with rural areas being most vulnerable3.
- Emergency medicine: In 2023, there were 555 unfilled residency positions in this field4.
- Doctor shortage by speciality: Fields such as cardiology, oncology and pneumology are projected to have a shortage of 3,800 to 13,400 doctors by 20343.
This shortage, while impacting both urban and rural populations, is particularly alarming for rural areas, where access to healthcare is dwindling. These shortages contribute to:
- Longer wait times
- Limited access to critical treatments
- Overworking of doctors
For instance, 35% of doctors surveyed by Sermo are likely to leave their roles in the next five years with 60% of those considering exiting clinical practice altogether2.
Why is there a doctor shortage?
Burnout and increased workload
Doctor burnout is a leading factor driving professionals out of the workforce.
According to McKinsey, burnout is not just about long hours. Doctors who feel they lack control over their schedules are more likely to report burnout, with 66% citing dissatisfaction with their schedules as a primary reason for considering leaving their roles. This issue is particularly pronounced in specialities like emergency medicine, where patient volumes are high1.
A GP in the Sermo Community described the mental strain, saying, “The doctors are not enough, and this has generated a lot of stress, long hours, and illnesses that make them absent from work5.”
Addressing these issues is crucial for retaining doctors and maintaining healthcare standards.
Low compensation and high education costs
Financial strain also plays a significant role in the shortage. 34% of Sermo respondents cite low pay as a significant contributor2.
A McKinsey survey similarly found that 69% of doctors believe higher remuneration would be a strong incentive to stay1. Meanwhile, the high cost of medical education is driving many students away from primary care and toward more lucrative specialities.
One Sermo member pointed out that the growing reliance on less expensive healthcare providers is further complicating the shortage, saying, “Not only is there a shortage of primary care specialists, but there is more reliance on less expensive providers5.”
This trend is pushing highly trained doctors toward higher-paying specialities, leaving primary care underfunded and understaffed. Addressing compensation and educational costs is essential to closing the workforce gap in healthcare.
Loss of autonomy
Many doctors are also being pushed into large healthcare systems, where they have less autonomy.
Between 2019 and 2021, approximately 108,700 doctors transitioned from private practice to employment in larger organisations, driven by the burdens of paperwork, administrative duties, and declining reimbursements6.
One Sermo doctor shared their frustrations, stressing, “If you pay primary care doctors fairly, they will come5.” Restoring autonomy and addressing financial pressures are critical to improving doctor retention and satisfaction.
The continuing impact of COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic worsened the already existing shortages, pushing many professionals to leave the workforce entirely.
84% of respondents in a McKinsey report cited challenges in nursing workforce coverage, and 60% faced shortages in clinical support staff. These shortages, compounded by increased turnover and higher vacancy rates, have created a challenging environment for healthcare delivery7.
Sermo discussions have highlighted the pandemic’s long-lasting effects. As one member said, “The doctors are not enough, and the stress from long hours has led to many becoming ill or absent from work5.”
Even in 2024, the lingering effects of the pandemic continue to drive absences and strain the system, making the shortage more severe and difficult to address.
Political influence
Politics has played a role in exacerbating the doctor shortage crisis. In a poll of 1,200+ Sermo doctors, 64% said political factors have impacted their practices8.
Changes in state policies regarding reproductive healthcare, for example, have caused doctors to abandon or avoid practising in certain areas. Additionally, 46% of doctors have relocated due to political pressures, contributing further to regional shortages8.
One US doctor shared their experience, saying, “Politics has never entered into my practice decisions, but political pressures increasingly constrain the way doctors practice medicine8.” This sentiment reflects the growing tension between healthcare delivery and regional political climates, which directly impacts patient care and highlights the need to address these external pressures to retain doctors.
Tackling burnout and staff shortages
To address the doctor shortage crisis, healthcare systems must first focus on improving immediate working conditions and then look to long-term retention strategies.
57% of Sermo respondents identified improving workplace flexibility as a top solution. This could include implementing2:
- Flexible scheduling and telemedicine options to provide doctors with more control over their work.
- Reducing administrative burdens to enable doctors to focus on patient care rather than paperwork.
- Recruitment from abroad to fill staffing gaps, which, as mentioned by a GP in the Sermo Community, “many hospitals in the United States5” are doing. This method helps alleviate immediate workload pressures and address the doctor shortage in the short term, reducing burnout and the strain on overworked staff.
- Mental health initiatives to provide doctors with the support they need to manage stress, burnout, and emotional well-being, helping them stay resilient in demanding work environments.
Retention strategies and solutions
Along with enhancing immediate working conditions, healthcare systems must implement long-term retention strategies to tackle the doctor shortage. Retaining doctors requires a multifaceted approach, and several strategies have been discussed in the Sermo community, including:
Training and mentoring programmes
Encouraging students to enter shortage-prone specialities requires strong training and mentoring programmes.
One Sermo Emergency Medicine member emphasised the importance of comprehensive hiring practices, supportive work environments, and effective training and development5.
A Paediatrics member highlighted that “Employees want the opportunity to grow professionally and advance their careers5.” These strategies are essential for not only addressing the doctor shortage but also fostering long-term professional growth and retention within healthcare.
Leadership and recognition programmes
Without leadership and recognition programmes, many doctors may feel undervalued, overlooked, and face misaligned expectations of the role. As one Sermo Anaesthesiology member expressed, “mismanagement has led the job to be vastly different than the job I signed up for5.”
Implementing leadership and recognition programmes is vital to fostering a sense of belonging and professional fulfilment. Investing in these programmes bridges the gap between doctors’ expectations and realities. Addressing these issues through strong leadership and recognition can encourage retention and improve satisfaction by making doctors feel valued and supported within their roles.
AI-powered tools
While 17% of healthcare leaders believe AI can ease workloads9, adoption is still low. Tools like AI-powered electronic records can reduce admin time, allowing more patient care focus.
Support staff and task delegation
According to a McKinsey study, nearly 20% of doctors’ clinical time could be delegated to non-doctor staff, with 42% of hospital-based respondents indicating advanced practice professionals could handle more clinical tasks1. Proper training is crucial to ensure these staff members focus on clinical duties rather than administrative tasks.
However, many Sermo members remain concerned about care quality – “A family doctor who completed a three-year residency had over 100 times as much clinical time as a new nurse practitioner graduate5.” Therefore, balancing task delegation while maintaining high care standards is essential for success.
These strategies could be implemented for long-term retention and to reduce the burden on healthcare workers.
What does the future hold for the doctor shortage?
The doctor shortage crisis is one of the most pressing challenges facing the US healthcare system.
From burnout to political influences, the causes are complex and demand comprehensive solutions. Healthcare systems must focus on improving work conditions, offering better pay, and fostering collaboration between government, private sectors, and academic institutions.
As the population ages – by 2040, one in five will be 65 or over10 – and the demand for healthcare rises, the need for sustainable, long-term solutions becomes ever more urgent.
Join the conversation today.
The doctor shortage is a challenge that affects us all, but solutions come from shared experiences and collaboration.
Join the Sermo community to engage with fellow healthcare professionals, share your insights, and participate in ongoing discussions about finding real-world solutions to this crisis.