As the global health landscape shifts, physicians are growing increasingly concerned about what might be around the corner.
In a recent Sermo poll, 65% of doctors said they believe a major pandemic arising from the UK Health Security Agency’s (UKHSA) new disease 2025 watch list is likely within the next five years.1 Yet, only 47% feel even somewhat confident in their country’s ability to manage such an outbreak effectively.1 Shockingly, 29% said they’re not confident at all.1 This gap between expectation and preparedness signals trouble for the future as physicians foresee a serious threat, but feel under-equipped to meet it.
So, what are the emerging diseases? The UKHSA’s new disease outbreak watch list spans 24 pathogens, from high-profile viruses like Ebola, Monkeypox and avian flu, to less discussed threats like human metapneumovirus, Moraxellaceae and multidrug-resistant bacteria.2 In this article, we explore why Sermo physicians believe these emerging diseases are occurring more rapidly, why healthcare systems are struggling to respond and what needs to change, fast.
Are we facing a new pandemic threat?
Why are emerging diseases increasing?
If there’s one sentiment echoing through the Sermo community, it’s this: physicians believe the next pandemic isn’t a matter of if, but when. According to Sermo poll data, only 14% of physicians say a major global pandemic stemming from UKHSA’s watchlist is unlikely.1 That level of concern from front-line professionals is telling and it raises an urgent question: why?
Global travel and population density are accelerating the spread
When asked which factors most increase the global pandemic potential of the diseases on the UKHSA watch list, 30% of physicians pointed to increased global travel, the highest of any factor.1 Another 16% cited urbanization and population density.1 Together, these reveal a core insight: modern mobility can turn local outbreaks into global threats within days.
Physicians on Sermo shared their observations. “Increased & easy global travel contributes to the spread of new diseases,3” wrote a GP. One Internal Medicine physician was even more direct, arguing that “Overpopulation and increased travel movement will lead to another pandemic sooner or later.3” And one Obstetrics expert reminded us of the scale: “In 1974, there were 4 billion people on the planet. Now there are 8 billion people. 8 billion souls that viruses and other pathogens can infect, mutate and spread to others.3” All of which now meet more and more frequently, thanks to global travel.
The insight here is clear: a hyperconnected world amplifies risk. The more people move, the faster diseases can spread. And with rapid urbanization creating megacities across the globe, opportunities for person-to-person transmission increase exponentially.
Climate change and ecological disruption: changing the disease map
A significant 18% of physicians highlighted climate change and ecological disruption as key drivers of emerging pandemic threats, particularly in how they can reshape how pathogens evolve.1
“Climate change may increase the risk of future pandemics by expanding the range of disease-carrying vectors like mosquitoes,3” a Radiation Oncologist on Sermo explained. Another GP warned that “Destruction of the ecosystem… can make the body more vulnerable and cause viruses and bacteria to mutate.3” While a Psychiatrist called zoonotic spillover “our biggest remaining threat,3” and an Ophthalmologist tied it all together: “Due to climate change… displacement and more traveling will exacerbate the issue.3”
Physicians on Sermo note that as our climate shifts, so will the habitats of infectious agents.1 Hence, diseases once confined to tropical zones — like dengue and chikungunya — now appear in Europe and North America. New ecosystems and new exposure risks mean that the global disease map is changing faster than healthcare systems can adapt.
Political mistrust and weak collaboration equal a delayed response
Physicians are also alarmed by the erosion of global cooperation. While 18% attributed pandemic potential to weak global healthcare infrastructure, the underlying problem runs deeper to a breakdown in international trust and collaboration.1
“The current diverse economic and political situation in the world… a unified front is lacking,3” observed a member on Sermo for Internal Medicine. A Radiologist didn’t mince words: “With the US pulling out of the WHO… Team Pandemic’s chances just got a lot better.3” Others voiced frustration over politicized healthcare. “Politics need to be kept out of healthcare,3” wrote a Cardiologist. One gastroenterologist captured the sentiment of many: “Countries don’t work together in times of dire stress and widespread disease.3”
In general, members of the Sermo community argue that when nations delay data sharing, compete for supplies, or politicize public health messaging, response time to new threats suffers.1 And with pathogens capable of exponential spread, even a week of hesitation can be catastrophic.
Misinformation and mistrust: the invisible accelerant
Finally, many physicians raised a modern and often underestimated risk: the rise of misinformation, vaccine hesitancy and public distrust.1
“Loss of misunderstanding due to the social media content by non-medical, non-scientific, non-healthcare workers made this reliability decrease daily.3” wrote an Internal Medicine specialist. A Sermo member for Family Medicine warned about “false information being spread by people in authority,” while a Psychiatrist added, “Anti-vaccine sentiments are now including vaccines with proven track records.3”
The takeaway here is that even with the best science and technology, public trust is a prerequisite for public health. Vaccine rollout, quarantine compliance and even basic hygiene practices depend on people believing in the system. When trust erodes, control measures falter.
Are surveillance and vaccines the key to early control?
Physicians overwhelmingly agree that surveillance and vaccines must lead the way when it comes to stopping the next pandemic in its tracks.1
In the Sermo poll, 37% said enhanced surveillance and early detection systems were the most critical preparedness measure, especially given the 17% who cited rapid mutation and viral evolution as the biggest drivers of pandemic risk.1
That vision is already taking shape in advanced systems like BEACON (The Biothreats Emergence, Analysis and Communications Network), an AI-driven, open-source platform that maps biothreats in real time4 and Oxford Nanopore’s genomic surveillance, which delivers pathogen diagnoses in under six hours.5 Meanwhile, initiatives like the BRIDGE Alliance are helping connect these innovations through cross-sector collaboration.6
However, surveillance alone isn’t enough. 23% of physicians stressed the need for rapid vaccine development and deployment.1 Programs like CEPI’s 100 Days Mission7 and BARDA’s mRNA platform expansion8 are pushing timelines once thought impossible. Yet, none of these tools work in isolation. As 29% of physicians highlighted, international collaboration remains essential to ensure coordination, speed and trust.1 In short, early warning, fast action and united effort are the pillars of pandemic control.
Which region is seen as most vulnerable and why?
When physicians on Sermo were asked which regions they believe are most vulnerable to a pandemic stemming from diseases on the UKHSA watch list, two stood out sharply: South and Southeast Asia (42%) and Sub-Saharan Africa (38%).1 Their responses point to a convergence of three core vulnerabilities: weak healthcare infrastructure, high population density and political instability.1
First, underfunded health systems are a major concern. In both regions, limited access to hospital beds, trained personnel and life-saving equipment makes pandemic response challenging. One GP in Nigeria put it plainly: “Lassa fever may potentially result in a global outbreak and we as a nation are certainly not prepared to tackle such a pandemic or any pandemic at all.3” It’s no surprise that 17% of Sermo physicians identified funding and resource limitations as the most significant barrier to global disease response.
Next, population density and rapid urbanization heighten transmission risk. As one Radiologist noted from India, “The population burden… will make it supremely difficult to manage [a pandemic], even with high-quality administration.3”
Finally, political barriers loom large, with 53% citing mistrust and conflict as the main obstacle to collaboration.1 As one Endocrinologist warned: “My government is failing to implement public health policies… and is destroying community areas.3”
The message from the Sermo community is clear: vulnerability is no longer just biological, but rather systemic, too.
Your takeaway
The Sermo community of physicians is deeply concerned about the global trajectory of pandemic preparedness.
The majority believe a new pandemic is likely within the next five years, yet many doubt their own health systems are ready to respond. They’ve identified critical vulnerabilities, from rising global mobility and climate-driven disease shifts to fragile infrastructure, political inaction and widespread misinformation.1
To mitigate future threats, stronger surveillance, faster vaccine development and coordinated international collaboration must be prioritized.
Join the conversation on Sermo
If you want to connect with a global community of doctors discussing real-time threats, practical responses and what comes next in pandemic preparedness, join Sermo today.
Footnotes
- SERMO, 2024. Poll of the Week: Emerging Diseases and Conditions [Poll]. SERMO Community
- BBC News, 2024. The diseases to watch in 2024
- SERMO member, 2024. Comment on Poll of the Week: Emerging Diseases and Conditions [Poll]. SERMO Community [Private online forum]
- MacIntyre CR, Chen X, Kunasekaran M, Quigley A, Lim S, Stone H, Paik HY, Yao L, Heslop D, Wei W, Sarmiento I, Gurdasani D. Artificial intelligence in public health: the potential of epidemic early warning systems. J Int Med Res. 2023 Mar;51(3):3000605231159335. doi: 10.1177/03000605231159335. Erratum in: J Int Med Res. 2023 May;51(5):3000605231178098. doi: 10.1177/03000605231178098. PMID: 36967669; PMCID: PMC10052500
- Department of Health and Social Care, 2024. UK to create world-first ‘early warning system’ for pandemics.
- World Economic Forum, 2025. How collaboration is strengthening global efforts to detect and prevent disease.
- Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), 2024. CEPI 2.0 and the 100 Days Mission
- Moderna, 2025. Moderna Announces Updates on Pandemic Influenza Program.
